NBA Combined Score Predictions – 16 March 2017

It was a bloodbath out there for The Dunkyard’s metrics today. But it’s still very early days and we shall not waiver in our task – despite the Lakers refusing to play basketball, giving up 46 points in the fourth quarter and turning an easy shoe-in into a heartbreaking loss today. Seriously, I watched the whole debacle live and you will not see a more pathetic excuse for defense in your life.

Here’s how things currently stand:

  • Last 15 games: 18 wins, 20 losses (53.6%)
  • Full season: 17 wins, 21 losses
  • Home vs away: 18 wins, 20 losses
  • Shoe-ins: 2 win, 2 loss (50.0%)

And now for tomorrow’s predictions:

Utah @ Cleveland

The Bookies say: 207.5

The Dunkyard says:

  • Last 15: 211.9 (over)
  • Full season: 206.5 (under)
  • Home vs away: 207.9 (over)

Conclusion:

Utah will try to slow things down, while LeBron and Cleveland will try to pick up the pace and jack up as many threes as possible. There’s no value here. Stay away.

Oklahoma @ Toronto

The Bookies say: 208.5

The Dunkyard says:

  • Last 15: 209.7 (over)
  • Full season: 211.7 (over)
  • Home vs away: 212.2 (over)

Conclusion:

Toronto’s still in freefall and highly unpredictable in Lowry’s absence. With a combined gap factor of only 1.3%, there’s no value here.

Memphis @ Atlanta

The Bookies say: 202

The Dunkyard says:

  • Last 15: 208.9 (over)
  • Full season: 203.7 (over)
  • Home vs away: 207.6 (over)

Conclusion:

My gut agrees with the bookies here – you will not find two more boring teams to watch than these and you really should stay away for the sake of your sanity. However, The Dunkyard’s metrics are pointing to the over with a solid, but far from spectacular, combined gap factor of 2.3%.

Brooklyn @ New York

The Bookies say: 221.5

The Dunkyard says:

  • Last 15: 216.4 (under)
  • Full season: 216.3 (under)
  • Home vs away: 218.5 (under)

Conclusion:

Some of these match-ups are starting to have that pathetic feel of an All-star game. This one will be no exception.

These two teams are so miserable and pathetic that anything is possible. The Dunkyard’s numbers are far less emotional about the whole thing and haven’t forgotten that these two motley crews really suck at putting the ball in the hole (NYK) and getting shots up at the hole in the first place (BRK) – hence the unanimity on the under.

LA Clippers @ Denver

The Bookies say: 224.5

The Dunkyard says:

  • Last 15: 216.6 (under)
  • Full season: 217.1 (under)
  • Home vs away: 219.1 (under)

Conclusion:

Trying to figure out the erratic Clippers following Griffin and Paul’s respective returns is fraught with difficulty – not so for The Dunkyard’s metrics when it comes to this game: they’re all pointing to the under. With a combined gap factor of 3.1%, it’s this round’s biggest, without quite being a shoe-in.

Orlando @ Golden State

The Bookies say: 218

The Dunkyard says:

  • Last 15: 213.5 (under)
  • Full season: 213.5 (under)
  • Home vs away: 216.4 (under)

Conclusion:

 

How the mighty have fallen (for now). As it turns out Kevin Durant is worth a hell of a lot more than Andrew Bogut and Marreese Speights. However, Andrew Bogut and Marreese Speights are predictably worth more than a sidelined Kevin Durant.

There’s no way a normal Warriors team would be seen dead playing a home game with a combined score of less than 220. But these aren’t your normal Warriors – particularly the version where Curry can’t hit the back side of a barn. And they are playing the Magic – a team with little idea how to make the ball go in the hole.

So I can see where The Dunkyard’s numbers are coming from and a 120-95 type of scoreline is very possible here.