NBA Combined Score Predictions – 15 March 2017

All up, it was it was a tough day for The Dunkyard’s advanced metrics today – with each going in an 0-3 hole before recovering admirably to 2-3 on the day. Here’s how things are looking at the moment:

  • Last 15 games: 15 wins, 13 losses (53.6%)
  • Full season: 15 wins, 15 losses
  • Home vs away: 15 wins, 13 losses
  • Shoe-ins: 2 win, 1 loss (66.7%)

The ride continues with tomorrow’s predictions – and there’s even a shoe-in for good measure!

Charlotte @ Indiana

The Bookies say: 207.5

The Dunkyard says:

  • Last 15: 205.8 (under)
  • Full season: 209.2 (over)
  • Home vs away: 209.2 (over)

Conclusion:

The metrics can’t agree with each other and the bookies are sitting right in the middle of it all. Stay away.

Dallas @ Washington

The Bookies say: 207.5

The Dunkyard says:

  • Last 15: 209.8 (over)
  • Full season: 205.6 (under)
  • Home vs away: 206.2 (under)

Conclusion:

Same as above. Stay away.

Minnesota @ Boston

The Bookies say: 210.5

The Dunkyard says:

  • Last 15: 210.0 (under)
  • Full season: 211.1 (over)
  • Home vs away: 211.7 (over)

Conclusion:

Yet another one to stay away from. Stick around, it starts getting better from here!

Utah @ Detroit

The Bookies say: 200

The Dunkyard says:

  • Last 15: 205.4 (over)
  • Full season: 200.2 (over)
  • Home vs away: 201.7 (over)

Conclusion:

Finally, we have a unanimous one! The only catch is that the full season metric is only over by 0.2 points and the combined gap factor is an uninspiring 1.2%.

Keep your powder dry, there’s better value elsewhere on this slate – particularly as these two slow, plodding teams are easily capable of chucking up an 85-74 type of scoreline.

New Orleans @ Miami

The Bookies say: 207

The Dunkyard says:

  • Last 15: 205.5 (under)
  • Full season: 205.3 (under)
  • Home vs away: 204.2 (under)

Conclusion:

While the metrics are all pointing to the under, the fact is that AD, Boogie and Dion will be taking the court on this one and anything can and will happen. A combined gap factor of 1.0% is not enough to absorb all of this.

Memphis @ Chicago

The Bookies say: 201

The Dunkyard says:

  • Last 15: 208 (over)
  • Full season: 202.8 (over)
  • Home vs away: 205.5 (over)

Conclusion:

Memphis might be among the most stingy teams at home, but it’s a completely different story on the road. The question is whether the erratic Bulls can take advantage.

With a combined gap factor of 2.2%, we’re starting to warm up.

LA Lakers @ Houston

The Bookies say: 234.5

The Dunkyard says:

  • Last 15: 224.5 (under)
  • Full season: 219.6 (under)
  • Home vs away: 219.9 (under)

Conclusion:

We have a shoe-in!

Houston loves to push the pace and score in bunches – and the insipid Lakers will be more than happy to let them keep doing so here.

That said, the Dunkyard’s metrics all think that the bookies have overestimated this one – coming in with a positively shoe worthy combined gap factor of 5.6%. Not helping things for the Lakers is the fact that this will be their 3rd game in 4 days.

Here’s hoping for a 130-90 blowout!

Portland @ San Antonio

The Bookies say: 212.5

The Dunkyard says:

  • Last 15: 208.1 (under)
  • Full season: 210.4 (under)
  • Home vs away: 210.3 (under)

Conclusion:

The metrics are all coming in under, but not convincingly with a combined gap factor of only 1.4%.

Sacramento @ Phoenix

The Bookies say: 221.5

The Dunkyard says:

  • Last 15: 215.0 (under)
  • Full season: 213.2 (under)
  • Home vs away: 211.6 (under)

Conclusion:

The one’s showing up as a comfortable under – with the bookies possibly overestimating the ability of the Kings and Suns to put the ball in the hole (hot tip: they’re not very good at it).

With a combined gap factor of 3.7%, it’s this round’s bridesmaid.

Milwaukee @ LA Clippers

The Bookies say: 210

The Dunkyard says:

  • Last 15: 209.0 (under)
  • Full season: 211.1 (over)
  • Home vs away: 208.9 (under)

Conclusion:

Everything seems to be zeroing right in on the bookies’ prediction of 210.

Save this dead-heat coin flip for the idiots.