NBA Combined Score Predictions – 14 March 2017

Despite the Lakers’ best attempts to sabotage things late on, The Dunkyard’s shoe-in came through for the second time running – by one point!

All up, it was a great day for The Dunkyard’s advanced metrics – with two of them posting 5-3 win/loss records and another 6-2. After three days of data, here’s how they’re looking:

  • Last 15 games: 13 wins, 10 losses (56.5%)
  • Full season: 13 wins, 10 losses
  • Home vs away: 13 wins, 10 losses
  • Shoe-ins: 2 win, 1 loss (66.7%)

Now that things are off to an encouraging start, it’s important to note a few things:

  • The over/under bet is a 50-50 proposition, no more, no less.
  • However, with $1.91 odds on offer, it means that, for each dollar you bet:
    • the bookies get the full dollar when you lose; and
    • you only get $0.91 when you win (plus your original dollar back of course).
  • What it all boils down to is that there’s a nasty 4.5% rake that you need to beat – and you need to be right at least 52.25% of the time just to break even. Anything above that over the long-run is what we’re aiming for here.
  • So please, don’t confuse me for Nostradamus. There is no way anyone can be right on these things 70%-80% or more of the time over the long run (or even 60% for that matter unless the bookies are completely retarded – hot tip: they’re not).
  • The whole aim of this is to find out whether The Dunkyard’s secret formula is more accurate than the bookies’ and, if so, by how much.

Enjoy the ride!

Now for tomorrow’s predictions. Sadly, there are no shoe-ins for this round, but still some interesting calls nonetheless:

Detroit @ Cleveland

The Bookies say: 215

The Dunkyard says:

  • Last 15: 214.8 (under)
  • Full season: 210.1 (under)
  • Home vs away: 210.2 (under)

Conclusion:

Detroit like to play slow and can’t hit the back side of a barn. Meanwhile, Cleveland are running the league’s best offense over the last 15 games and leaking points like a sieve.

The Dunkyard’s metrics are all pointing to the under, but not very convincingly in the case of the Last 15 metric.

Oklahoma @ Brooklyn

The Bookies say: 225

The Dunkyard says:

  • Last 15: 218.4 (under)
  • Full season: 215.9 (under)
  • Home vs away: 212.3 (under)

Conclusion:

Both these teams have poor defenses and are like to play fast – suggesting a high scoring game. However, neither team is particularly efficient when it comes to shooting (OKC is particularly poor) which is why The Dunkyard’s metrics are all pointing to the under.

With a rangy gap factor of 2.9%-5.6%, it’s the most comfortable tip of the round – without quite being a shoe-in.

Indiana @ New York

The Bookies say: 211

The Dunkyard says:

  • Last 15: 212.2 (over)
  • Full season: 211.4 (over)
  • Home vs away: 211.3 (over)

Conclusion:

It’s almost as if the bookies stole The Dunkyard’s secret formula for this game!

Betting on these numbers would be gifting money to the bookies, so don’t do it.

These will all technically count as overs on The Dunkyard’s records for now, but we might have to bring in a rule that allows abstaining on predictions that are this close (on the basis that you would never make a bet on them).

Portland @ New Orleans

The Bookies say: 217

The Dunkyard says:

  • Last 15: 211.6 (under)
  • Full season: 211.5 (under)
  • Home vs away: 214.1 (under)

Conclusion:

New Orleans interestingly has the league’s second worst offense (after the Chicago Bulls) over the last 15 games. Clearly the Boogie thing needs some more time.

This is probably why The Dunkyard’s numbers are unanimous on the under despite all the offensive talent on offer in Lillard, McCollum, Davis and Boogie.

Philadelphia @ Golden State

The Bookies say: 221

The Dunkyard says:

  • Last 15: 218.3 (under)
  • Full season: 215.3 (under)
  • Home vs away: 215.4 (under)

Conclusion:

Both these teams play very fast and while Golden State’s offense has been struggling of late without Durant, it’s hardly chopped liver. The points will definitely flow. However, with Philly playing its 4th game in 6 days it’ll be the Warriors doing most of the scoring. A 115-90 type blowout is very foreseeable.

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