NBA Combined Score Predictions – 13 March 2017 (Update!)

The Dunkyard’s Suns v Blazers shoe-in for 12 March 2017 came through comfortably. The bookies curiously had this game at 232 points, with the final result netting only 211 points.

If you bet on The Dunkyard’s next surest thing (Rockets v Cavs), then you would also have squeaky bummed your way into the money by two points!

After two days of data, here’s how The Dunkyard’s prediction metrics are looking:

  • Last 15 games: 7 wins, 8 losses
  • Full season stats: 8 wins, 7 losses
  • Home vs away: 8 wins, 7 losses
  • Shoe-ins: 1 win, 1 loss

Now for tomorrow’s predictions:

Chicago @ Charlotte

The Bookies say: 200

The Dunkyard says:

  • Last 15: 207.9 (over)
  • Full season: 206.7 (over)
  • Home vs away: 205.9 (over)

Conclusion:

All metrics are pointing to an over here. The only thing going against this is that you just don’t know which Chicago is going to show up and a 105-85 type of scoreline is very possible. That said, something tells me Jimmy Butler isn’t going to throw up another 5-7-3 stat line like he did against Boston today. With a gap factor of 3%-4%, this one is showing up as a clear over.

Dallas @ Toronto

The Bookies say: 197.5

The Dunkyard says:

  • Last 15: 201.9 (over)
  • Full season: 204.4 (over)
  • Home vs away: 206.1 (over)

Conclusion:

Both these teams play at a glacial pace and are reasonably good defensive outfits (both are in the top-10 for defense over the last 15 games). So it’s unlikely that we’ll see a high scoring affair here, particularly as Toronto’s top-5 offense has been misfiring of late without Kyle Lowry (still missing with a wrist injury).

Despite these things, the bookies look like they might have underestimated the scoring for this game with The Dunkyard’s numbers all pointing to the over.

Washington @ Minnesota

The Bookies say: 214

The Dunkyard says:

  • Last 15: 216.6 (over)
  • Full season: 211.5 (under)
  • Home vs away: 211.0 (under)

Conclusion:

This game pits two of the league’s hottest offenses of late. Washington’s offense in particular has been blistering, moving at an insane pace and scoring almost at will – even if rules have to broken along the way.

However, the Wizards will be playing their 5th game in seven days and are a serious risk of running our of puff.

Overall, the numbers are saying to stay away from this one.

Atlanta @ San Antonio

The Bookies say: 202.5.

The Dunkyard says:

  • Last 15: 204.8 (over)
  • Full season: 205.8 (over)
  • Home vs away: 204.7 (over)

Conclusion:

The numbers are all coming out on the over here, but only ever so slightly. There’s better value elsewhere.

Milwaukee @ Memphis

The Bookies say: 201.5

The Dunkyard says:

  • Last 15: 212.1 (over)
  • Full season: 205.1 (over)
  • Home vs away: 201.3 (under)

Conclusion:

The Grindhouse is no place for visiting teams, with the Grizzlies sporting the league’s 4th best home defense. It’s also no place for trying to make sense of the above numbers. Stay away.

LA Clippers @ Utah

The Bookies say: 200

The Dunkyard says:

  • Last 15: 205.8
  • Full season: 204.4
  • Home vs away: 204.4

Conclusion:

This is the most interesting game of the round, which means stay away!

While the numbers all clearly point to the over, the two meetings between these teams this season have produced the following scores:

  • 163 (88-75, Clippers win)
  • 160 (88-72, Clippers win – without Chris Paul)

Their two pre-season games also came in well under 200 for good measure.

If I was betting on this one, I’d ignore the numbers and go with my gut on the under. The Dunkyard’s metrics don’t have this luxury of course and will all record an over here.

LA Lakers @ Denver

The Bookies say: 231

The Dunkyard says:

  • Last 15: 222.3 (under)
  • Full season: 219.0 (under)
  • Home vs away: 219.7 (under)

Conclusion:

Both these teams play very fast and can’t play any defense to save their lives. An All-star game style ‘shootout’ is definitely on the cards. However, The Dunkyard’s numbers aren’t going anywhere near as high as the bookies.

What might also help keep the scores lower are that the Lakers will be:

  • on the second game of a back to back; and
  • travelling all the way up to some serious altitude.

This, combined with a strong gap factor of 3.8%-5.3%, gives us our shoe-in of the day on the under.

Orlando @ Sacramento

The Bookies say: 207

The Dunkyard says:

  • Last 15: 205.6 (under)
  • Full season: 206.1 (under)
  • Home vs away: 210.2 (over)

Conclusion:

For reasons that remain a mystery, Orlando likes to push the pace on the road and play no defense whatsoever – which is why The Dunkyard’s home and away metric has done a thing of its own.

It’s difficult to know what to believe here. Best to stay away.