NBA Combined Score Predictions – 12 March 2017

The bad news is that my Bucks v Wolves ‘shoe-in of the week’ didn’t quite pan out.

The good news is that the rest of my list came out with more wins than losses. There’s only one thing to do: keep going and see how things go for the rest of the season, starting with tomorrow’s games:

Chicago @ Boston

The bookies say: 208.5

The Dunkyard says:

  • Last 15: 210.5
  • Full season: 209.1
  • Home vs away: 210.2

Conclusion:

With a gap factor of only 1.0% between the Dunkyard and the bookies, this one is very tight. The -7.5 spread in favour of Boston also means the chances of overtime are also slimmer than usual. The bookies look on the mark here.

You would do well to leave this one alone as it’s pretty much a coin flip and you need to do better than that to beat the bookies. However, if you simply have to bet, then go with the over. Helping things here is that Boston likes to pick up the pace when playing at home which means a couple of extra buckets made.

For the sake of record keeping, The Dunkyard will mark this one down as an ‘over’ as all three metrics are pointing to this – albeit ever so slightly.

Miami @ Indiana

The bookies say: 207

The Dunkyard says:

  • Last 15: 210.7
  • Full season: 207.1
  • Home vs away: 205.4

Conclusion:

This one depends on whether you’re a resident of Dion Waiters Island. If you are, then look at nothing but the last 15 games and bet on Dion to bring things home on the over.

If you’re smart, you’ll leave this one alone.

The Dunkyard officially abstains from calling this game as the metrics aren’t unanimous.

New York @ Brooklyn

The bookies say: 221.5

The Dunkyard says:

  • Last 15: 214.7
  • Full season: 216.3
  • Home vs away: 213

Conclusion:

These teams might play at a fast pace and have horrible defenses, but they can’t hit the back side of a barn and the bookies are looking overly optimistic on the scoring here. Bet the under.

Cleveland @ Houston

The bookies say: 231

The Dunkyard says:

  • Last 15: 224.7
  • Full season: 219.8
  • Home vs away: 220.2

Conclusion:

Although we’re dealing with two of the best and fastest moving offenses, the bookies look like they’ve overcooked this one – particularly as Cleveland doesn’t travel well (16-14 on the road). Bet the under.

Portland @ Phoenix

The bookies say: 232

The Dunkyard says:

  • Last 15: 222.6
  • Full season: 218.1
  • Home vs away: 218.7

Conclusion:

Both these teams play fast and have truly horrible defenses. A high scoring game is definitely on the cards. That said, The Dunkyard’s formula isn’t exactly banking on a 118-115 thriller. This one looks like a clear under. With a gap factor of over 4%, it’s the shoe-in of the day.

Philadelphia @ LA Lakers

The bookies say: 221

The Dunkyard says:

  • Last 15: 220.7
  • Full season: 212.5
  • Home vs away: 213.6

Conclusion:

Based on the last 15 games alone, this one’s almost a dead heat. However, the full season and home and away stats say otherwise.

What could tip the scales here is the fact that the 76ers will be playing their third game in four days – having just faced the Clippers the night before. They’re young, inexperienced, generally crap without Embiid and will be very tired. Bet the under.

The -3.5 spread in favour of the Lakers also looks suspect here. I know the Lakers suck donkey dick, but my money’s on them winning by more than 3 points under these circumstances.