Milwaukee v Minnesota – 11 March 2017

As I looked over the slate for tomorrow’s games, something odd stood out: the bookies’ combined score for the Bucks v Wolves was set at a lowly 203.

Consequently, I headed straight to my advanced stats laboratory and came up with a few formulas (the ingredients of which are naturally a secret) which produced the following combined score numbers:

  • Based on overall season stats: 209.6
  • Based on last 15 games: 212.9
  • Based on home/away stats: 210.2

Conclusion: I’m betting the over. While these teams play at a relatively slow pace, they’re both in decent form and scoring very freely at the moment (both have offensive ratings over 110 over the last 15 games). Both teams also don’t have very good defenses. I don’t see them grinding out a lower scoring game, particularly with Towns and Giannis going nuts.