It’s time for a bumper review of the Adam Morrison Rule, including the potential entrants for the class of 2017-18 and the active alumni from years gone by!
The Adam Morrison Rule is a harsh, unforgiving bitch that is yet to be broken.
It effectively says that a top 5 pick who posts a rookie player efficiency rating (PER) of less than 10 won’t make much of themselves (to the point of justifying a top 5 pick), let alone an All-star game.
Grab yourself a beverage of choice and get comfortable. It’s time to assess and predict the futures of some of the most fascinating players in the league.
The Adam Morrison alumni
Over the last 27 years, the following players have qualified for the Adam Morrison Rule:
- Antonio Daniels
- Jonathan Bender
- Nikoloz Tskitishvili
- Darko Milicic
- Adam Morrison
- Jeff Green*
- Wesley Johnson*
- Anthony Bennett
- Otto Porter*
- Alex Len*
- Dante Exum*
- Mario Hezonja*
- Brandom Ingram*
- Dragan Bender*
- Kris Dunn*
(*) Denotes active players.
So far, that’s 27 years, dozens of cumulative seasons and zero (0) All-star games.
Before looking at this year’s potential inductees, let’s check back in on the active alumni.
Veteran Flotsam – Jeff Green (2007, No. 5) and Wesley Johnson (2010, No. 4)
I’m not going to waste any time with stats here. By top 5 pick standards, these two are truly awful players. Watching Doc Rivers currently trotting out Johnson (PER 9.6) as a starter for 24 minutes per game is particularly galling. At least Green (a former Doc player) has settled into an appropriate role as a hanger-on to LeBron and is doing a reasonably good job of it too – like one of those little fish that swims in perfect unison underneath the shark.
Otto Porter (2013, No. 3)
For a brief while at the start of this season, Porter looked like he might become the first player to break the Adam Morrison Rule. Then, the reality of bringing an A-grade game night after night set in.
35 games into this season, while Porter is still putting up some pretty solid numbers, he definitely won’t be sneaking into this year’s All-star game:
- Minutes per game: 31.5
- Points per game: 14.6
- Rebounds per game: 6.5
- Stocks per game: 2.1
- FG%: 50.0
- 3P%: 45.5 (he was already about this good last season in case you were wondering)
- TS%: 60.0 (slightly less than last season)
- PER: 18.8 (slightly better than last season’s 17.3 and slightly below ‘borderline All-star level)
Going forward, Otto will soon be 25 and is on a middling team that already has two prime All-star candidates. For Otto to make it, it looks like he’ll need some injuries elsewhere to any one or more of Beal, Wall, Giannis, LeBron and the host of other wing youngsters who’ll be coming through the ranks at his position such as Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Aaron Gordon, Gordon Hayward and, of course… Nikola Mirotic.
As an efficient, low-usage (29th among small forwards) role player who can’t create enough of his own offense, I just don’t see it happening for Otto.
Long live the Adam Morrison Rule!!!
Alex Len (2013, No. 5)
Don’t look now, but Alex Len has showed up as an actual, functioning, more-or-less average starting caliber player:
- Minutes per game: 21.5
- Points per game: 8.7
- Rebounds per game: 8.6
- Stocks per game: 1.3
- FG%: 53.5
- FT%: 75.4
- TS%: 60.1
- PER: 19.3 (a massive improvement on last season’s 15.0)
Could he make an All-star game one day? Bitch please. Don’t be ridiculous. He has no outside shot, can’t create any offense to save his life (16.9% usage rate), doesn’t defend anywhere near well enough, runs around the court like a handicapped giraffe on ice skates and has the pace of sludge oozing down the side of a rubbish bin. In other words, he’s a crack whore’s Jonas Valanciunas (who can actually play by the way – are you listening Dwayne Casey?).
Still, what Len is now is far better than the roadkill he was scheduled to become. Nicely done.
Dante Exum (2014, No. 5)
I nearly didn’t put the ‘active’ asterisk next to his name. Enough said.
Actually, no, I’m not done yet: in the two seasons Exum has played so far, he has posted PERs of 5.7 and 8.5. There, now I’m finished.
Mario Hezonja (2015, No. 5)
After nailing Hezonja to the bench at the start of the season, Orlando slapped some lipstick and makeup on him and started giving him some minutes – all in the hope that someone might want to trade something useful for him of course. Hezonja’s numbers from this season suggest that Orlando may be waiting a while:
- Minutes per game: 15.7
- Points per game: 6.1
- Rebounds per game: 2.8
- Assists per game: 0.8
- Stocks per game: 0.8
- FG%: 44.8
- 3P%: 33.3
- TS%: 54.0
- PER: 11.2 (last season: 7.2 – please excuse my lack of excitement for his ‘massive’ improvement)
Soon to be 23, Hezonja is barely a replacement level player (NB: replacement level is a PER of 10 – which plenty of G-league players could perform at in the NBA). Among other things, he can’t create his own offense (45th among 77 shooting guards) and can’t spot up from from the outside well enough.
Euroleague looks like it may be in his future.
Checking back in the class of 2016-17
Last year’s class was perhaps the most interesting ever in the history of the Adam Morrison Rule in that there were THREE qualifiers – one of which everyone appears convinced will still be a star.
The improvement shown by two of the three in their sophomore seasons has been very impressive to say the least. Could they break the Adam Morrison Rule one day?
Dragan Bender (2016, No. 4)
Now that I’ve hyped things up, it’s time to let you down with the play of Dragan Bender. In his second year, he’s no closer to understanding the NBA game and I’m getting that shifty feeling of the Darkos about him:
- Minutes per game: 21.0
- Points per game: 5.4
- Rebounds per game: 3.0
- Stocks per game: 0.8
- FG%: 36.3 (I would have thought more than that would have gone in by accident)
- FT%: 75.0
- TS%: 50.5
- PER: 6.5 (last season: 5.3)
An optimist would look at Bender’s output this season and say that he’s improved by over 20% on last season. Those with greater than sub-gump level IQ can clearly see that he needs to be twice as good just to become a shitty NBA player. Right now, he’s a lot worse than shitty.
PS: Phoenix really needs to have a think about its drafting strategy.
Kris Dunn (2016, No. 5)
The improvement shown by Kris Dunn in his second season has been remarkable:
2016-17:
3.8ppg, 2.4apg, 2.1rpg, 17.1mpg, TS 43.2%, 8.1 PER
2017-18:
- Minutes per game: 28.9
- Points per game: 13.3
- Rebounds per game: 4.8
- Assists per game: 6.0
- Stocks per game: 2.3
- FG%: 43.2
- 3PT%: 31.3 (still poor)
- FT%: 69.8 (still nowhere near good enough)
- TS%: 48.2 (still awful)
- PER: 14.4 (last season: 8.1)
In the space of just one season, Dunn has gone from being sub-replacement level to being borderline average starting quality. He’s been solid on the defensive end and has even become a surprisingly good playmaker – averaging 7.5 assists per 36 minutes (26.4% assist rate – ranked 31st among 73 point guards) and sporting a usage rate of 26.2% (ranked 14th among point guards).
Of course, the catch remains his shooting – which has gone from being historically bad to just plain putrid (54th among point guards).
If he ever gets his shooting together, he’ll be a very solid player for years to come – and maybe even an All-star some day. The problem is that, despite playing in only his second season, Dunn will turn 24 in February and time is not on his side.
Brandon Ingram (2016, No. 2)
This was The Dunkyard on Ingram following his rookie season:
Mid season stat line: 8.0ppg, 2.0apg, 4.0rpg, 27.6mpg, TS 46.2%, 7.5 PER
End of season stat line: 9.4ppg, 2.1apg, 4.0rpg, 28.8mpg, TS 47.4%, 8.6 PER
This is what I wrote at mid-season about Ingram – and very little has changed:
When you see him running up and down the court, you can see the length and athleticism that had scouts so excited – reminding them of a young Kevin Durant. The problem is that, unlike rookie Durant, rookie Ingram can’t create shots anywhere near as well (usage 15.1%16.4% vs 28.1%) or put the ball in the basket (TS 46.2%47.4% vs TS 51.9%).
In fact, the only similarities I can see so far are height and order drafted. Unless Ingram improves significantly from here, he’ll easily qualify for the Adam Morrison Rule.
The only positive for Ingram is the perception that he improved over the second half of the season from morbid to putrid. But did he?
As for this season so far:
- Minutes per game: 35.1
- Points per game: 15.9
- Rebounds per game: 5.3
- Assists per game: 3.2
- Stocks per game: 1.7
- FG%: 44.2
- 3PT%: 30.4 (oof)
- FT%: 67.7
- TS%: 50.7 (still not better than rookie-Durant)
- PER: 11.9 (last season: 8.1)
Don’t let the 15.9 points per game fool you: Ingram is still a very ordinary player. However, there’s no doubt he has improved considerably – from sub-G-League level to occasionally handy bench-warmer level.
Can he keep going and become the star so many think he can be?
Having watched a fair few Lakers games this year, it’s easy to see Ingram’s main problem – his ungainly shooting style. It really looks like a drunk person taking a heave. Every time he takes a shot he has to bring the ball all the way around and down just to bring it back up for launch. It wastes a lot of time and allows too much room for error in his mechanics.
Simply put, Ingram’s current shooting style will never cut the mustard for a star creator needing to get his shot off against long and tight defenses. Its effectiveness un-guarded also has to be questioned given his abysmal 67.7% free throw accuracy (64.7% career to date).
The Lakers should also put a cork in the idea of Ingram as some sort of playmaker (at least for now). While it may seem nice to see him attacking the rim more (21.1% usage rate, up from 16.8% last season – ranked 15th among 67 small forwards) – his turnover rate clearly demonstrates that he’s nowhere near up to the task (11.9% TO rate, ranked 48th among small forwards).
When Ingram’s not simply coughing it up on the way to the hole, he’s also getting Spalding tattooed all over his face with alarming regularity – ranking 7th overall in total shots blocked and 17th overall by percentage. Yikes. Of course, Ingram’s forays to the rim might be more productive in the future if he ever develops a reliable outside shot – and this is where I would be focusing my efforts with him for now.
Will Ingram be a star some day? The Adam Morrison Rule says no and I remain doubtful. But who honestly knows? He’s still only 20, has shown plenty of improvement so far, has thrown in some pretty big games here and there and, most importantly, has a Lakers hierarchy behind him that seems hell bent of seeing him succeed. The pieces are definitely there.
Nominees for the class of 2017-18
It’s now time to look at this year’s rookie class and see if we have any possible inductees.
Markelle Fultz – No. 1
After only four injury affected games, it’s simply to early to tell what we’ve got in Fultz.
Let’s hope he can get back on the court soon so that we can check back on him at the end of the season.
For what it’s worth, I think the concerns about Fultz’s game are highly overblown and I do not expect him to be an inductee in this year’s class.
Ben Simmons – No. 1 (2016-17 Draft)
Simmons was injured all of last season and is technically a rookie this year. So far he has been nothing short of spectacular and has no chance whatsoever of making it to this year’s class of Adam Morrison. Let’s just admire his numbers and think of what might be in the future if he ever finds something even resembling an outside shot:
- Minutes per game: 35.5
- Points per game: 16.9
- Rebounds per game: 8.4
- Assists per game: 7.5
- Stocks per game: 2.8
- FG%: 51.0
- 3PT%: 0.0 (10 attempts in total)
- FT%: 55.7
- TS%: 52.7
- PER: 17.8
To say that Simmons is a unique player is an understatement. He’s 6’10”, plays point guard and ranks as follows among the league’s 73 point guards:
- Shooting: 37th
- Assist rate: 23rd
- Usage: 20th
- Turnover rate: 67th
- Offensive rebounding: 2nd
- Defensive rebounding: 3rd
- PER: 17th
- Estimated wins added: 8th
On top of that, Simmons also ranks as follows among the entire league:
To summarise, at present, Simmons is an out of control playmaker who can’t take care of the ball or shoot to save his life – but who is an absolute menace in just about every other facet of the game. In other words, the exact opposite of the current mainstream narrative, which already has Simmons pegged as Magic Johnson (he ain’t… yet) based on raw per-game numbers.
When most people think of Simmons, they immediately point to his offensive impact – where he’s already a cut above at creating (44th among the entire league for usage and 23rd among point guards for assist rate) and getting to the foul line. While it’s very impressive, it’s Simmons’ highly underrated work at the defensive end which makes him unique – and where his impact on the game is greatest. To put this in perspective, have a think about how many other players in the league can do all of the following:
- Competently defend just about any position.
- Steal the ball like Russell Westbrook and Eric Bledsoe.
- Rebound the ball like a forward.
- Block shots like a forward.
Answer: pretty much nobody except Giannis and LeBron (who’s rookie PER and shooting numbers were remarkably similar to Simmons’) – and that’s it.
Simmons is in rare company to say the least. Will he ever be able to shoot? If so, then the ensuing Alpha Dog battle between him and Embiid will be a popcorn-worthy spectacle to behold.
Lonzo Ball – No. 2
Lonzo gets a hard time because of his dickhead father, which is a bit unfair given that he appears to have a great attitude and natural feel for the game… until it comes time to shoot. As for his overall numbers:
- Minutes per game: 33.7
- Points per game: 10.1
- Rebounds per game: 6.8
- Assists per game: 7.0
- Stocks per game: 2.4
- FG%: 35.2
- 3PT%: 30.3
- FT%: 48.0
- TS%: 43.0
- PER: 11.5
While Lonzo appears in no danger of qualifying for the Adam Morrison Rule, that’s not to say he hasn’t got some serious issues to work through with his shooting.
While I can forgive the lousy field goal and three point percentages (Jason Kidd was only marginally better overall in his rookie season), a free throw percentage of 48.0% is absolutely unforgivable – to the point where Lonzo is currently the 8th WORST OVERALL SHOOTER IN THE ENTIRE LEAGUE. Combined with his awkward shooting technique, it puts a major question mark on his potential as a future star.
That said, there is the following silver lining:
(FG%, 3P%, FT%)
- October: 33.3%, 28.6%, 55.6% (7 games)
- November: 30.4%, 24.3%, 42.9% (14 games)
- December: 42.2%, 37.7%, 50.0% (10 games)
The big question going forward is whether Lonzo will stick with his current NBA Jam style form. Or is a complete rebuild coming over the summer?
Jayson Tatum – No. 3
Danny Ainge is looking pretty smart right about now, swapping Fultz in exchange for what will probably be another Top 5 draft pick AND Tatum:
- Minutes per game: 31.1
- Points per game: 13.9
- Rebounds per game: 5.5
- Assists per game: 1.4
- Stocks per game: 1.6
- FG%: 50.1
- 3PT%: 45.3
- FT%: 82.6
- TS%: 63.1
- PER: 16.5
To say that Tatum is playing within the confines of his role is putting things mildly. Suffice to say, I don’t think anybody had Tatum tipped as this good a shooter (35th overall in the league and 6th among small forwards).
The only questions left to answer are: will be be able to create his own offense when the time comes and will he be able to maintain his insane efficiency? My money is on yes to both.
Josh Jackson – No. 4
And finally we have a candidate!
Jackson has really stunk things up nicely in his rookie season so far:
- Minutes per game: 21.7
- Points per game: 9.2
- Rebounds per game: 3.5
- Assists per game: 1.1
- Stocks per game: 1.3
- FG%: 38.9
- 3PT%: 25.3
- FT%: 56.6
- TS%: 45.0
- PER: 8.1
At the moment, there’s nothing I can quite point to as a clear strength in Jackson’s NBA game. He can’t shoot (due largely to his hideous shooting form), can’t create, serves up turnovers like a pasty chef, is a middling rebounder and sports the 10th worst PER among rookies.
His overall defense, while encouraging in parts, also still needs a lot of work:
“He’s a good individual defender, it’s just where he is off the ball at times.” Triano said. “He’s got to be locked and ready and still be able to guard real tough players. I think some nights there’s going to be a physical issue, but he’s got a lot of fight. I like his fight. He’s not afraid of anybody, he won’t back down from anybody.”
PS: regarding Jackson’s individual defense, faster players are routinely blowing by him too.
At least there have been some nice signs:
Overall, unless Jackson finds some serious improvement on the offensive end in the second half of this season, he’ll be a shoo-in for induction into this year’s class of Adam Morrison.
PS: did I mention that Phoenix needs to re-think its draft strategy?
De’Aaron Fox – No. 5
- Minutes per game: 25.7
- Points per game: 9.9
- Rebounds per game: 2.8
- Assists per game: 3.8
- Stocks per game: 1.1
- FG%: 40.8
- 3PT%: 28.6
- FT%: 68.4
- TS%: 46.3
- PER: 9.9
Like Ball, Fox currently can’t shoot for peanuts. However, unlike Ball, Fox hasn’t got the other all-round skills to make up for it.
All things going to plan, Fox should improve over the second half of the season and avoid making it into this year’s class of Adam Morrison. Then again, he does play for Sacramento, so anything is possible.
Longer term, if Fox wants to avoid the type of glass ceiling that currently sits over John Wall (who still can’t shoot after 8 seasons), he’ll need to find a way to become a credible outside threat. The forests of bigs a guard needs to navigate in the keyway are thicker and larger when they know he can’t shoot.
The Dunkyard 